To Sports Betting
Gambling Twitter, fueled by its disdain for the tout industry, flexed its muscle last week, ridiculing the Vegas Golden Knights for partnering with a betting pick-selling service and celebrating when the relationship was nixed just three days after its inception.
- Sports Betting Lines
- Tips To Sports Betting
- Sports Betting Sites
- Peer To Peer Sports Betting
- In Sports Betting What Does Over Under Mean
- Sports Betting Stocks
- In Sports Betting What Is A Parlay
On Wednesday, the Knights named UpickTrade the team's Official Picks Service Partner, promising to promote the company on social media platforms and on boards lining the rink inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. UpickTrade sells betting picks, including on the NHL, for $89 a month. The deal was billed as the first sponsorship agreement between a Mexican-based company and an NHL club and also the first partnership between a professional sports franchise and a pick-seller.
The Knights posted the announcement on Twitter -- a tweet that has since been deleted -- and ignited a firestorm of criticism from the community of bookmakers and bettors who make up Gambling Twitter.
'Is this a joke?' professional sports bettor Rufus Peabody asked on Twitter after seeing the announcement.
'[I] thought this was an Onion story,' Robert Walker, a longtime Nevada bookmaker now with US Bookmaking, added in a tweet.
Every wager made in sports betting has either a positive expected value (+EV), negative expectation value (-EV) or in rare cases neutral expected value. Winning sports betting requires avoiding –EV and finding. Arizona to embrace sports betting in deal with tribes. By BOB CHRISTIE February 2, 2021. PHOENIX (AP) — Arizonans would be allowed to bet on professional and college sports at tribal casinos and at sites.
On Saturday, the deal was terminated by the Knights.
'My work here is done,' Keith Fridrich, another veteran bookmaker and critic of the Knights' deal, tweeted Saturday night.
You don't often see bettors and bookmakers unite, but that's how widely despised the tout industry is. In fact, there may not be a profession with a worse reputation than a pick-seller. Not all touts are dirty, of course, and boiled down, picks are just content that consumers can decide whether to purchase. However, the industry's reputation has been built on decades of bad actors using unscrupulous tactics such as falsifying records, selling both sides of games and claiming to have inside information. Almost all of it is nonsense, a ruse to convince naïve bettors that the tout of the day has the secret sauce to success in the sports betting world.
In the end, it's likely a lesson learned for the Knights and all sports teams and leagues about a part of the betting world that requires extreme caution. It's also evidence of the influence that Gambling Twitter has.
'Obviously, they should have ended that partnership,' one professional bettor told ESPN, 'but if there is no social media, I'm guessing they never would have.' -- David Purdum
What was Vegas thinking?: This was a decision so egregious that it really makes you wonder how it even got this far. How many Golden Knights executives signed off on this? Did anyone raise concerns? I'm all for innovation and thinking outside the box, but you also have to read the room and understand why stereotypes exist. And the last thing you can have is presumed shadiness, even if everything is ethical and well-intentioned. On top of that, you reside in Vegas and should understand the narratives, as some other franchises might lean on your de facto expertise.
Sports betting legalization has achieved quicker corporate acceptance than I anticipated, as we approach the three-year mark since the 2018 U.S. Supreme Court ruling. The leagues have kept an open mind and embraced this new territory, while admittedly welcoming advertising revenue. Most importantly, leagues and teams have demonstrated they believe partnering with gaming operators will not compromise the games' integrity. But there is a limit to this and optics do matter, especially with this new era still so young. Partnering with a tout service, especially one with such a documented checkered track record, should never have even reached this point. -- Doug Kezirian
Indeed, it was another entertaining week in the sports betting world. Here is Daily Wager and Chalk sports betting analyst Doug Kezirian and sports betting reporter David Purdum's odds-and-ends look at it all.
Super Bowl betting investigation in Tennessee: The Tennessee Lottery is investigating alleged illegal bets placed on the Super Bowl with two of the state's four licensed sportsbooks. A spokesperson for the lottery told ESPN that its investigation revealed violations of state and federal law. As a result, 74 betting accounts were closed and some open bets were canceled ahead of the Super Bowl. A lottery investigator said last week that the bets were placed from a 'group of individual accounts' and 'another group of accounts being used by one [individual].' Match-fixing or point-shaving are not believed to be the focus of the investigation. More specifics have not been disclosed, as the investigation continues. -- David Purdum
Sports Betting Lines
Looking ahead to look-aheads: Old-school handicappers love situational handicapping, and there is arguably no better betting angle than legitimate spots where teams are looking past an opponent ... a.k.a. 'the look-ahead spot.' In college hoops, fading Duke and North Carolina in the game prior to their rivalry matchup is a popular tactic, especially when they are sizeable favorites.
Both cooperated earlier this season. On Feb. 1, Duke lost outright as an 11-point favorite at Miami. The Blue Devils fell to 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in this particular situation and are 16-33 ATS over the last 25 regular seasons. On Feb. 2, thanks to 17 turnovers, UNC lost by double-digits as a road favorite at Clemson.
The next rivalry game is slated for this Saturday in Chapel Hill. Prior to that, Duke plays at Georgia Tech on Tuesday and should be favored by around two points. The Tar Heels visit Syracuse tonight as a one-point favorite. -- Doug Kezirian
Notable losing bet: William Hill US reported taking an $80,000 money-line bet on Baylor (-200) to beat Kansas on Saturday, a giant wager for college basketball. The Jayhawks upended the previously-unbeaten Bears 71-58. -- David Purdum
Notable winning bet: On Feb. 3, a bettor with William Hill US in Nevada placed a $110,000 bet on Canelo Alvarez to defeat long-shot Avni Yildirim at -4,000 odds. Alvarez finished off Yildirim with a third-round TKO, and the bettor won a net $2,750. -- David Purdum
Bright lights: The Brooklyn Nets are reinforcing an NBA postseason narrative about stars shining when the lights are the brightest. Will a team be able to beat three future Hall-of-Famers in a best-of-7 series? In the regular season, Brooklyn is dominating the marquee games, and they're doing a majority of this damage without the entire trio of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving being intact. The Nets did fall to the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday on ABC. Brooklyn fell to 10-2 both straight up and against the spread in nationally-televised games. Durant and Irving did not play. -- Doug Kezirian
Trendy overs: At some point, the oddsmakers will catch up to the New Orleans Pelicans and Nets. However, it hasn't happened yet and the public continues to ride the gravy train. The Pelicans are 23-4-1 to the over in their last 28 games, which includes nine of the last 10. The Nets are 22-7 to the over in their last 29; however, the under has connected in four of the last five. Both Brooklyn and New Orleans struggle defensively and have potent offenses, but for whatever reason, oddsmakers are missing with the totals. -- Doug Kezirian
Who's laughing now?: Social media was filled with criticism and mockery once BetMGM announced that it received a wager of $10,000 on the Washington Wizards to win the NBA title at 500-1 odds. A $5 million payout is certainly enticing, but this team was sitting outside the playoff race and closer to the draft lottery than a championship conversation. Since that bet, the Wizards have posted a 5-2 record with upset wins over the Denver Nuggets (twice), Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers. BetMGM currently has the Wiz at 400-1. -- Doug Kezirian
NBA odds update: Heading into All-Star week, the Utah Jazz have had their odds to win the NBA title improve more than any other team. After opening at 42-1, the Jazz are now +950 at FanDuel.
The Lakers remain the consensus favorites and have attracted more than double the amount of money wagered than any other team in BetMGM's title odds pool.
LeBron James is the consensus favorite to be named regular-season MVP. More than 32% of MVP bets at PointsBet are on James. -- David Purdum
Ping-pong punting: $11.8 million was bet on table tennis in January with Colorado sportsbooks. That's more than was bet on hockey ($9.6 million) and more than was bet on soccer, college football and MMA combined during January, according to the Colorado Department of Revenue. -- David Purdum
To most sports gamblers, a professional bettor seems to have a perfect life. They wager on sports for a living, make their own hours, and earn serious profits.
That said, professional sports gambling may seem like a glorious career. However, it actually involves a long and slow climb to the top.
This guide discusses the realistic points of the path towards becoming a success when betting on sports. It also covers the small edges and long hours that gamblers must put it into turning pro.
Professional Sports Bettors Deal With Small Edges
When the general population envisions an expert sports bettor, they think of somebody who makes thousands of dollars with every wager.
They probably also picture a gambler who just can’t seem to lose night after night. The reality, though, is much different than this.
Instead, they have a small edge that they exploit through large bets.
Many sports gamblers consider themselves successful if they win 50% of their wagers at -110 odds. Of course, gamblers can win more far more bets against the sportsbooks if they back heavy favorites (e.g. -300 or better).
But -110 is a nice measuring stick for how successful you are in terms of win-loss percentage. Even if you win 50% of the time at these odds, though, you still won’t be making profits.
After all, you need to take the juice into account. A bookmaker takes 10% from the losing side in a -110 wager, meaning a 50% win rate won’t get it done.
Some handicappers claim they correctly guess over 60% of their sports betting picks. However, no handicapper or professional sustains such a win rate in the long run.
At best, one can only expect to be successful on 55% of their bets long term. This win rate certainly isn’t the 80% mark that many would envision for a pro.
You Can’t Expect to Win Big With a Small Bankroll
You won’t get very far if you have a 53% to 55% win rate and are only placing $10 bets. You can’t even earn a dollar profit from each wager at this rate.
Tips To Sports Betting
You need to exploit your long-term edge with big bets in order to make serious profits.
Here’s an example on how much you might win as a lower-level pro:
- You place $2,000,000 worth of bets throughout the year.
- You win 54% of your wagers at -110 odds.
- 2,000,000 x 0.54 = $1,080,000 in winnings
- 2,000,000 x 0.46 = $920,000 in base losses
- 920,000 x 0.1 (juice) = $92,000 in juice paid
- 920,000 + 92,000 = $1,012,000 in total losses
- 1,080,000 – 1,012,000 = $68,000 profit on the year.
Unless you strictly bet point spreads, most profitable opportunities that you find aren’t going to be at exactly -110 odds. But I keep referring to these odds because they make for the simplest examples.
You also need to capitalize with large wagers as well. You can only place these big bets if you have the bankroll to do so.
You Must Build Your Skills & Bankroll
Sports gambling definitely isn’t something that you jump right into and immediately conquer. Instead, it requires you to put long hours into the matter.
You’re most likely not going to win right away. Therefore, you want to study general sports betting strategy while slowly increasing your bankroll at the same time.
You also need to work on your handicapping skills.
This way, you won’t lose too much money if your betting skills aren’t yet up to par.
All the while, you should also be slowly adding to your bankroll. This process involves saving money and using it to build your gambling funds.
You probably don’t have $50,000 or $100,000 just sitting around for gambling purposes. But you can build up to this amount through a combination of steady investments and improving your skills.
Eventually, You Need to Increase Your Bet Sizes
I highly advise that you don’t jump into sports gambling and start placing $1,000 wagers right away. Eventually, though, you want to up your bet sizes to make more money.
With a large enough bankroll, you may even theoretically earn thousands of dollars per wager.
Of course, you want that bankroll to back up those huge bets.
Otherwise, the volatility could ruin your betting career.
Therefore, you should put serious consideration into your bankroll size. Here’s an example:
- You want to place $500 bets.
- You also want a bankroll with at least 100 units to survive the volatility.
- You’ll risk 1-3 units on each match, depending upon how confident you are.
- 500 x 100 = 50,000
- You should start with at least $50,000 (100 units at $500 apiece).
Sports Betting Sites
Can You Grind From a Low Roller Into a Pro Bettor?
If you’re like most amateur online bettors, you’ll probably start with a $50 or $100 deposit. These amounts give you just enough money to make several bets on the games you watch.
However, you may also have aspirations of turning your small bankroll into a fortune someday.
The odds are definitely against you depositing $100 and eventually becoming a top pro. Then again, though, everybody has to start somewhere.
The reason why most sports bettors feel this way comes down to two aspects:
- They fail to put the work into strategy and handicapping.
- They exercise poor bankroll management.
Sure, everybody who sets out on the road towards professional gambling blames bad luck or external factors for their failures. In reality, though, the average bettor is lazy and impatient.
They don’t want to put an hour into handicapping a single bet. They want to put five minutes into handicapping 12 wagers and pray that they’ll win most of the bets.
Furthermore, the typical sports gambler doesn’t wish to grind their way up towards larger wagers. They want to quickly increase their bet sizes and take shots at the big time.
Long story short, it’s possible to go from a small initial deposit to becoming a professional gambler. But you also need discipline, patience, and steady investments into your bankroll.
Most gamblers aren’t willing to make these sacrifices. That said, it can sometimes feel impossible grinding up towards pro status.
Tips for Starting on the Path to Becoming a Pro
Peer To Peer Sports Betting
As discussed throughout this post, you’re not going to become a professional bettor overnight. But you can at least get started on the right path by following the tips below.
Save Up for a Starting Bankroll
A $100 bankroll isn’t going to help you become a professional gambler. Even a $1,000 bankroll won’t do the trick.
You need a sizable bankroll so that you can make large bets and survive potential losing streaks. The amount needed all varies based on how much you want to get out of sports betting.
Of course, you don’t have to put your betting activities on hold just because you don’t have a small fortune.
Instead, you can learn the ropes by making small bets while slowly adding to your bankroll on the side. If you save up enough money, you’ll eventually be able to become a serious pro.
Break Your Bankroll Down Into Units
Most professionals don’t look at their bets in terms of dollars. Instead, they break their bankrolls down into units.
If you normally wager $100 per bet, then your unit size will be $100.
Of course, you’ll likely bet more than $100 when you feel extremely confident about an outcome. Therefore, you might risk 2-3 units in these situations.
In any a case, here’s an example on how to break your bankroll down into units:
- You have a bankroll worth $75,000.
- You want 100 units.
- 75,000 / 100 = 750
- Each unit size will be worth $750.
Narrow Your Focus
You might be tempted to bet on multiple markets. After all, wagering on a variety of sports is more entertaining than just one or two.
But the goal here is mastery. You stand a much better chance of making profits someday if you truly know a market.
Going further, you should also pay attention to a specific division rather than constantly trying to scout an entire league. If you know one division extremely well, then you’ll be an expert on matches involving that division.
Never Stop Studying
Sports betting is fun because you may never truly master it. You could dedicate a lifetime to this pursuit and still get fooled by the bookies sometimes.
That said, you have lots of room to grow with betting. If you truly dream of becoming a professional, you should constantly be studying general strategies and handicapping tips.
As long as you never stop researching advice, you’ll improve over time. Improve enough, and you could very well make a nice living off of sports gambling.
In Sports Betting What Does Over Under Mean
Conclusion
Sports Betting Stocks
Sports gambling may seem like a quick path to riches for skilled bettors. But in reality, it’s a long journey that involves lots of planning and patience.
You can’t go from zero to 60 and expect to win big right away. Instead, you should grind your way up the ladder while slowly adding money to your bankroll.
In Sports Betting What Is A Parlay
With this approach, you can improve your handicapping efforts while also building your gambling funds. You should also steadily increase your bet sizes—especially as you develop an advantage.