Nba Moneyline
Included next to the point spread is the -110 betting odds. NBA point spreads typically begin at (-110) odds and then move based on each bet the book receives throughout the day. Moneylines in NBA Basketball Betting. The moneyline bet is straightforward—which team will win the game. This wager disregards margins of victory. Every game has a Favorite and Underdog associated with the Money Line Odds and the plus (+) and minus (-) symbols are used to differentiate the teams. For NBA money line odds, it s a simple math formula that s based on $100 wagers. Toronto -400 (Bet $100 to.
The over/under, or “total,” and the moneyline are the two other common bets made on NBA games. The total (combined points by both teams) is set by the sportsbook, and bettors can choose to bet. NBA Betting Guide for 2/3/21: A Moneyline, an Over, and an Under to Target Tonight: Despite a 10-game slate, there isn't a ton of value projected from our model. So where should we look to start.
There are sports in which the Cinderella story is every fan’s delight. Basketball is not one of them.
Nba Moneyline History
Not only do fans want to see established hoops heroes collect championships, but bettors tend to pick favorites a lot more than the underdogs…especially newbie gamblers.
Many people see teams favored to prevail by a set number of points, and instantly think that the team is a lock. They focus on whether or not the favorites will cover the points, disregarding that the underdog could finish on top on the scoreboard altogether.
It should come as no surprise that as a team is favored to out-score its opponent by greater points, the higher the probability becomes that they will prevail outright. Before you look at the charts (if you haven’t already), guess which percentage among favorited teams triumph when they are favored by 3.5 points. Once you have that number, look below at our table and see if you were close. Most of the general public will completely overshoot the %.
Nba Moneyline Betting
NBA Moneyline Conversion – Implied Outright Winning % by Spread
| Favorite | ML | Winning % | Underdog | ML | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | -115 | 51.10% | 1 | -104 | 48.90% |
| -1.5 | -121 | 52.30% | 1.5 | -100 | 47.70% |
| -2 | -132 | 54.30% | 2 | +109 | 45.70% |
| -2.5 | -143 | 56.30% | 2.5 | +118 | 43.70% |
| -3 | -156 | 58.20% | 3 | +129 | 41.80% |
| -3.5 | -170 | 60.10% | 3.5 | +140 | 39.90% |
| -4 | -184 | 61.90% | 4 | +150 | 38.10% |
| -4.5 | -199 | 63.60% | 4.5 | +162 | 36.40% |
| -5 | -222 | 65.80% | 5 | +179 | 34.20% |
| -5.5 | -247 | 68.00% | 5.5 | +198 | 32.00% |
| -6 | -276 | 70.10% | 6 | +219 | 29.90% |
| -6.5 | -309 | 72.10% | 6.5 | +243 | 27.90% |
| -7 | -349 | 74.20% | 7 | +270 | 25.80% |
| -7.5 | -397 | 76.30% | 7.5 | +302 | 23.70% |
| -8 | -458 | 78.40% | 8 | +341 | 21.60% |
| -8.5 | -536 | 80.50% | 8.5 | +388 | 19.50% |
| -9 | -656 | 82.80% | 9 | +456 | 17.20% |
| -9.5 | -832 | 85.20% | 9.5 | +545 | 14.80% |
| -10 | -1069 | 87.30% | 10 | +651 | 12.70% |
If your guess was close to 60%, then you have a pretty good understanding of what it means for a side to be favored by only 3.5. Those of you who guessed a lot higher than 60%? Don’t fret. It is a very common mistake. Now, guess what percentage of 3.5 ATS favorites actually cover. Check your answer with the table below.
Actual Winning Percentage by Spread in Basketball
| Favorite | Winning % | Underdog | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 45.40% | 1 | 52.00% |
| -1.5 | 48.10% | 1.5 | 51.90% |
| -2 | 49.50% | 2 | 46.70% |
| -2.5 | 46.90% | 2.5 | 53.10% |
| -3 | 48.50% | 3 | 47.20% |
| -3.5 | 46.50% | 3.5 | 53.50% |
| -4 | 52.80% | 4 | 45.30% |
| -4.5 | 50.40% | 4.5 | 49.60% |
| -5 | 46.00% | 5 | 49.50% |
| -5.5 | 51.30% | 5.5 | 48.70% |
| -6 | 50.60% | 6 | 45.80% |
| -6.5 | 50.80% | 6.5 | 49.20% |
| -7 | 47.20% | 7 | 48.10% |
| -7.5 | 52.30% | 7.5 | 47.70% |
| -8 | 53.10% | 8 | 43.80% |
| -8.5 | 50.80% | 8.5 | 49.20% |
| -9 | 50.20% | 9 | 46.40% |
| -9.5 | 51.40% | 9.5 | 48.60% |
| -10 | 44.70% | 10 | 52.80% |
Nba Moneyline Stats
It might not be a huge surprise that 3.5-point favorites only prevail in 60% of games played, but the fact that they don’t even cover 50% of those games should be. Most gamblers assume that when a team has been favored at 3.5-points they are likely to cover.
In reality the underdog not only covers, but prevails on a scoreboard in 40% of contests played. The cash player can be tricked into taking small favorites because of how much the line is over-valued. If I had asked what percent of 10-point favorites prevail outright, your guess would have likely been a lot closer to the actual number.
Remember, a sporting event may pit 2 teams with disparate records and publicity. But it’s still a contest between 2 opponents on the same college or professional level.
Nba Moneyline Bet
Nba Moneyline
Always give the ‘dog a thorough evaluation. There’s often value to be had.